URLX Engine v0.3 · Simulation layer
URLX Valuation Sensitivity
Every scenario below is simulated in memory from the current stored measurement. Nothing is written to the record: stored metrics, scores, valuations, snapshots, provenance and the audit log are untouched. URLX-FV-0.1 and URLX-SC-0.1 run unchanged.
| Variable | −20% | −10% | Base | +10% | +20% | Elasticity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic | -0.08% | -0.06% | — | +0.03% | +0.03% | 0.00× |
| Monthly revenue | -20.01% | -10.01% | — | +10.01% | +20.02% | 1.00× |
| Revenue growth | -1.48% | -0.73% | — | +0.66% | +1.35% | 0.08× |
| Traffic growth | -0.20% | -0.13% | — | +0.04% | +0.05% | 0.01× |
| Engagement | -1.21% | -0.64% | — | +0.52% | +1.02% | 0.06× |
| URLX Score™ | -11.89% | -5.89% | — | +6.00% | +11.81% | 0.59× |
Colour intensity shows how far URLX Fair Value™ moves when the input changes. Elasticity is the average Fair Value change divided by the input change: 1.00× is proportional. URLX Score™ is shown as an output variable and excluded from sensitivity shares.
±10% input → +10.01% / -10.01% Fair Value · range across assets 15.00%–15.49%
±10% input → +0.66% / -0.73% Fair Value · range across assets 0.15%–2.86%
±10% input → +0.52% / -0.64% Fair Value · range across assets 0.46%–1.25%
±10% input → +0.04% / -0.13% Fair Value · range across assets 0.00%–0.42%
±10% input → +0.03% / -0.06% Fair Value · range across assets 0.00%–0.42%
- ›If traffic increases 10%, URLX Fair Value™ changes by +0.03%.
- ›If monthly revenue increases 10%, URLX Fair Value™ changes by +10.01%.
- ›If revenue growth increases 10%, URLX Fair Value™ changes by +0.66%.
- ›If traffic growth increases 10%, URLX Fair Value™ changes by +0.04%.
- ›If engagement increases 10%, URLX Fair Value™ changes by +0.52%.
- ›Traffic is responsible for approximately 0.3% of valuation sensitivity.
- ›Monthly revenue is responsible for approximately 87.4% of valuation sensitivity.
- ›Revenue growth is responsible for approximately 6.7% of valuation sensitivity.
- ›Traffic growth is responsible for approximately 0.7% of valuation sensitivity.
- ›Engagement is responsible for approximately 4.9% of valuation sensitivity.
2 variable(s) produced non-monotonic or inverted valuation responses and need review before URLX-FV-0.2.
Sensitivity concentration
87.4% · Concentrated
Assets tested
63
Methodology under test
URLX-FV-0.1 · URLX-SC-0.1
Elasticity 0.00× · share 0.3% · asymmetry 62.0%
A 10% change in traffic moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 0.03% on average. Responsible for approximately 0.3% of measured valuation sensitivity. Changing this measurement barely affects value under URLX-FV-0.1.
Elasticity 1.00× · share 87.4% · asymmetry 0.0%
A 10% change in monthly revenue moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 10.01% on average. Responsible for approximately 87.4% of measured valuation sensitivity.
Elasticity 0.08× · share 6.7% · asymmetry 8.7%
A 10% change in revenue growth moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 0.66% on average. Responsible for approximately 6.7% of measured valuation sensitivity. 6 of 63 assets move the wrong way when this input rises — review required.
Elasticity 0.01× · share 0.7% · asymmetry 60.7%
A 10% change in traffic growth moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 0.04% on average. Responsible for approximately 0.7% of measured valuation sensitivity. 2 of 63 assets move the wrong way when this input rises — review required. Changing this measurement barely affects value under URLX-FV-0.1.
Elasticity 0.06× · share 4.9% · asymmetry 16.6%
A 10% change in engagement moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 0.52% on average. Responsible for approximately 4.9% of measured valuation sensitivity. Upside and downside responses differ by 16.6%, so the response is not linear.
Elasticity 0.59× · share 0.0% · asymmetry 0.5%
A 10% change in the URLX Score™ moves URLX Fair Value™ by about 6.00% on average.
Development notice
These diagnostics describe how the URLX-FV-0.1 development prototype behaves under simulated input changes on illustrative development data. They are not a validation of the methodology, and no formula has been changed. Findings here are intended as evidence for a future URLX-FV-0.2.
| Change | Input | URLX Score™ | Fair Value™ | Δ Fair Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic · base 3.20B | |||||
| −20% | 2.56B | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| −10% | 2.88B | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| Base | 3.20B | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | 3.52B | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| +20% | 3.84B | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| Monthly revenue · base $24.50B | |||||
| −20% | $19.60B | 86±0 | $1.46T | -20.00% | HIGH |
| −10% | $22.05B | 86±0 | $1.64T | -10.00% | HIGH |
| Base | $24.50B | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | $26.95B | 86±0 | $2.01T | +10.00% | HIGH |
| +20% | $29.40B | 86±0 | $2.19T | +20.00% | HIGH |
| Revenue growth · base 14.0% | |||||
| −20% | 11.2% | 85-1 | $1.77T | -3.17% | HIGH |
| −10% | 12.6% | 86±0 | $1.80T | -1.23% | HIGH |
| Base | 14.0% | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | 15.4% | 86±0 | $1.85T | +1.23% | HIGH |
| +20% | 16.8% | 86±0 | $1.87T | +2.46% | HIGH |
| Traffic growth · base 6.7% | |||||
| −20% | 5.4% | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| −10% | 6.0% | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| Base | 6.7% | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | 7.4% | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| +20% | 8.0% | 86±0 | $1.82T | 0.00% | HIGH |
| Engagement · base 88.0% | |||||
| −20% | 70.4% | 84-2 | $1.80T | -1.47% | MEDIUM |
| −10% | 79.2% | 85-1 | $1.81T | -0.74% | HIGH |
| Base | 88.0% | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | 96.8% | 87+1 | $1.84T | +0.74% | HIGH |
| +20% | 100.0% | 87+1 | $1.84T | +0.74% | HIGH |
| URLX Score™ · base 86 | |||||
| −20% | 69 | 69-17 | $1.60T | -12.50% | LOW |
| −10% | 77 | 77-9 | $1.70T | -6.62% | MEDIUM |
| Base | 86 | 86±0 | $1.82T | — | HIGH |
| +10% | 95 | 95+9 | $1.94T | +6.62% | HIGH |
| +20% | 100 | 100+14 | $2.01T | +10.29% | HIGH |